IPTS-ESTO Techno-Economic Analysis Report 1998

The views expressed in this study do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission (EC). The European Commission retains copyright, but reproduction is authorised, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged: neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. Prospective techno-economic analysis (PTA) work at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) consists in exploiting our contact with the R␣ &␣ D community at large on the one hand, the European Union (EU) policy-makers on the other, and our own hands-on involvement with science and technology (S␣ &␣ T) to underline and signal, hopefully in a user-friendly fashion, S␣ &␣ T-related policy-relevant developments and their implications, for the socioeconomic context. The challenge is to try to identify the PTA information of special interest to EU policy-makers, omitting the scientific discoveries with only marginal policy interest, and selecting those developments with great potential interest. We attempt to emphasise the links — in both directions — between technology and the economic environment, while addressing the policy-maker's perspective. IPTS products are created with policy concerns in mind. In terms of frequency of publication, they range from spontaneous, quick-response very brief executive notes, to the monthly IPTS Report, whose articles examine underappreciated aspects of issues which are projected to be important, to the present, yearly volume which occupies the other end of the spectrum. This annual techno-economic report sets itself apart in that its organising principle is not a specific topic, as in the IPTS Report articles or the executive notes, but rather a time period. It is neither a compendium nor an almanac. It is an attempt at putting the events which have occurred in the course of the year into a perspective, highlighting their mutual links and potential implications. To what extent this ambitious objective has been met is up to the reader to judge. Jorma Lievonen In association with the Group for Technology Studies (VTT) 1. Introduction Part I of this report presents contextual observations of the year 1998 and some of the main topics of the report. Developments and trends in some individual fields are reviewed in greater detail in Part II. Finally, Part III takes a look at research and technological development (RTD) efforts and policies of four non-EU countries. In 1998, economic growth continued at a fast …